Beef market outlook
- Meat consumption is not only increasing because of the increasing population. With income levels, per capita consumption is also increasing. Studies have shown the most dynamic growth in meat demand in low- to middle-income countries (China, South America, East Asia), while highly developed countries show a stabilisation of demand or even a downward trend. Demand for meat has shifted significantly towards poultry and pork, and the share of processed meat in its overall consumption has also increased.
- Three different methods of forecasting demand have unanimously confirmed a significant increase in meat consumption up to 2050, with results ranging from 76% to 144% growth over the next 30 years. Most of this growth will be generated in low- and medium-developed countries.
- According to statistics, there has been a significant decline in beef consumption in Poland since 1992, from 12.6 kg in 1992 to around 4.0 kg in 2020.
- Farmers raising cattle for beef production have little tendency to associate (cooperatives, producer groups, etc.). Consequently, their bargaining power is weak. They tend to be a passive party in negotiations and accept the conditions proposed by contractors.
- Farmers are distrustful of the changes taking place in the beef market. A small percentage only intend to invest and develop beef production based on meat and dairy crossbreds.
- The barriers to entry in the meat market are low, which is why there is such a high threat from new competitors. However, the low profitability of production discourages potential investors. The meat sector is one of the highly competitive sectors in terms of internal competition between producers of these products.
Sources:
GUS, Foreign Trade Statistical Yearbook 2021, Warsaw 2021